October Not-So-Surprise

Originally published on Beterwas.

October is here and I, for one, am on the lookout for the dreaded "October Surprise."

Karl Rove has promised us one. Whatever you may say about the man, I will credit him with being reliable on two counts: What he says he will do, he will do; and what he does will suck.

Whatever happens in the next thirty days, question it! Whatever it is.

Where is the "surprise" exactly? For instance, why is it not at all surprising that the October Surprise was a Republican invention?

In October of 1968, Richard Nixon's presidential campaign convinced the South Vietnamese government to pull out the Paris Peace Talks, devestating Vice-President Hubert Humphrey's campaign.

The same tactics were used again in 1976, against then Governor Jimmy Carter. The creation of the Team B experiments (under George H. W. Bush, not-so-interestingly) was leaked to derail Carter's Détente-based foreign policy campaign.

It's happened since then, and Democrats have become as guilty as the Republicans; but the first two are particularly interesting. In both instances, Republicans prolonged a conflict with a hostile nation in order to score political points for their party. That's not all they did.
Think about it for a moment: In 1968, talks were ongoing, cease-fires were announced and the war coud have been ended as early as January, 1969. The Republicans saw that as nothing more than a victory for Johnson and, by extension, Humphrey in a close election. They convinced the South Vietnamese that a better deal could be had by pulling out of the talks, and the delegation went for it.

One year later, Richard Nixon addressed the nation and asked the "silent majority" to join him in solidarity with the Vietnam War effort and to support his own policy of achieving an end to the war and American troop withdrawal by strengthening the South Vietnamese Army so that it could defend South Vietnam on its own (Wikipedia)
Sounds familiar.

Everything after that - My Lai, Cambodia, Laos, Kent State - none of it had to happen. But all of it did, and we made it worse by collectively allowing our objection to justify "not thinking about it" and neglecting its veterans and victims.

Sounds familiar, too.

Eight years later, Republicans again antagonized an enemy and undermined peace negotiations, in an effort to throw an election.

Think of everything that happened during that conflict after that - Afghanistan, Grenada, Iran-Contra - and ask yourself if these might have been averted were it not for partisan politics.

Well, get dressed, because here it comes again.

What will Karl Rove bring us this time around? War with Iran? Terrorist attack? Capture of Bin Laden?

Whatever it is, don't you believe it. Don't let your families believe it. Don't let your friends believe it.

Confound authority by letting them know you are not being fooled.

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